Fox News moves Ohio Senate and governor races to 'lean Democrat' two days before midterms
Editorial illustration — Press Pass USAFox News Power Rankings updated Sunday moved both of Ohio's top races — the U.S. Senate contest and the governor's race — from toss-up to “lean Democrat,” two days before voters decide the November 3 midterm election.
In the Senate race, former Sen. Sherrod Brown has led Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted in three Fox News polls this year, including last week's survey, which had Brown five points ahead at 52% to 47%. Fox News noted that Ohio voters know Brown well, having sent him to the Senate three times, and said that familiarity has made it hard for Husted to campaign on national themes that Republicans are using elsewhere. “Lean Democrat” means the Democrat has an edge but the race remains highly competitive.
The seat is the one Vice President JD Vance vacated to take office; Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Husted to fill it in January 2025, and Tuesday's special election decides who serves the remainder of the term. A separate Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network poll released October 28 also had Brown ahead, 47% to 44%, within its margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.
The governor's race between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy moved the same way. Ramaswamy sat two points behind Acton in last week's Fox poll and an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September, according to Fox News. The update pointed to Ramaswamy's controversial ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, which drew criticism from fellow Republicans including DeWine and Husted, while President Donald Trump defended the spot.
The Ohio shifts came as part of a broader move toward Democrats in the final forecast: Kansas moved from lean Republican to toss-up, South Carolina from lean Republican to toss-up, Nebraska from likely Republican to lean Republican, and Mississippi from solid Republican to likely Republican. Fox News still rates overall control of the Senate as a toss-up, with Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans ahead in 45, while projecting Democrats to win at least 223 House seats. The Cook Political Report likewise shifted more than a dozen House races toward Democrats on October 30.
Early in-person voting in Ohio ends today, November 1, and polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Absentee ballots must be returned to county boards of elections by 7:30 p.m. Tuesday.
Sources: Fox News (Power Rankings, updated Nov. 1, 2026); The Columbus Dispatch (Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network poll, Oct. 28, 2026); USA Today (midterm live updates, Nov. 1, 2026).
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